ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the first quarter of 2021
In the latest survey round of the SPF, conducted between 7 and 11 January, respondents continued to cite the developments of the Covid-19 pandemic as the most important factor influencing their macroeconomic outlook for the euro area.
Inflation expectations remained broadly stable in the short-term, but a stabilisation could be observed for longer-term expectations.
As regards real economic activity, GDP growth forecasts for 2021 were revised down, while those for 2022 were revised up, indicating that with recent surge in infections and associated new lockdown measures, respondents to the survey now expect the economic recovery to set in later, but then last longer. As a special question we asked respondents for their quarterly growth profile and around 20 respondents indicated that on average they expect GDP to have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2020 and to stagnate in the first quarter of 2021.
Unemployment expectations were revised down across all horizons.
For more information read the full report on the ECB website.
